Hey, Ralph.
I didn't "come out" until pretty late in my life (28), so if your friend is gay, I have a good general understanding of the problems he's facing. If you could answer some questions, maybe I can be of some help:
- How old is he?
- How do you think his family feels about gay people?
- What does he do for a living, or, what's his work environment like (blue collar, retail, etc.)?
- Does he abuse alcohol or drugs?
- Before you came to believe he is gay, what was the attitude toward gay people you & his friends displayed (calling people "fag," whether joking or not, laughing at or insulting gay people, etc.)?
In my experience, the attitude of my family toward gay people wasn't an issue, since they're very open-minded and all-around great people, but even knowing that, it was hard for me to tell them. I was concerned about disappointing them, or having them feel uncomfortable around me, or treating me differently. However, as I've heard & seen of the experiences of some of my gay friends, if their families were "anti-gay," for want of a better term, it had a huge impact on how they felt about themselves, and how difficult it was for them to accept who they are. If your friend is concerned about how his family would react, and how they'd treat him, that's a gigantic obstacle for him to overcome.
Sometimes, one's working environment has a big impact on how, when, and if someone comes out. I worked in a blue-collar job for several years, and the thought of any of them knowing I was gay was frightening. There was no doubt I'd be an outcast, I'd be threatened, and no one would want to work with me ("guilt by association"). If your friend's work environment would be a difficult place to be as a gay man, that's a damn good reason to stay quiet...
I asked if he abuses alcohol or drugs because if he does, you may want to keep a closer eye on him; if he's truly in a depressive state, his substance abuse may increase, and could pose a significant threat to his health.
Speaking again from personal experiences, before I came out, the attitude of my friends was very negative toward gay people in general, so that reinforced my feelings that I needed to hide that part of my self. It's common for people to use the terms "gay," and "fag," and "queer," in very negative ways. How often do you hear someone say something like "I hate that song - it's so gay," or call someone a "fag" as an insult--not having anything at all to do with sexuality, or describe something as being "queer" because it's something they don't like, and so on. When you use "gay" terms to describe things you don't like, what that says to a gay person is that you don't like him. Period. Put another way, how would a Jewish person feel if he heard you say "He wanted $10 for it, but I Jewed him down to 5," or "You're only giving $5? Don't be such a Jew." Using the word "gay" in a negative way is just as hurtful and bigoted as using the word "Jew" in a negative way. So if your friend hears his friends hurling "gay" insults, why would he feel comfortable telling you he's gay?
Finally, I was trying to think of how I would have reacted if someone confronted me & asked me if I was gay before I was ready to come out by myself. The only answers I can honestly come up with is that it would have depended on who asked me, the surroundings we were in, and how he/she asked. I guess the best-possible scenario for me would have been if someone I was really close to (someone I really loved & trusted) asked me, in a private, one-on-one setting, and approached it in a sincere but casual way, as if to convey that they know this is a difficult, important, and private matter, but that to them, it wasn't a big deal, then I most likely would have opened up. If you think you can convey those feelings to him, and if you think you can put him at ease, and if you can assure him you're only asking because he's your friend, and you love him, and you want him to feel comfortable being his true self with you, and that you'll absolutely respect his privacy, then he may open up to you. However, it's a tough call on your part... If it goes well, you'll make him feel a lot better, and he'll truly appreciate your friendship even more, but if he's not ready, or if your approach makes him uncomfortable, it could make things worse.
I guess the "safest" thing would be to let him come out on his own when he's ready, while at the same time showing your support & understanding in general, non-specific ways, so that he knows how you'd react if he were to tell you. I hope that made sense.... :o)