Tippy, the economy has not recovered yet. We still have almost one out of every ten people unemployed, homes are still being forclosed on and the auto industry is giving cars away but not selling them as they closed a large number of dealerships. The only American auto manufacturer that did not take bailout money from Obama is the only car copmany that did not file bankruptcy and is in the red as they do not own the Federal Government money. You are truly confused.

WE WERE HEADED FOR A DEPRESSION WHEN PRESIDENT OBAMA TOOK OFFICE:

Recession over? Five signs Bernanke may be right

A number of positive trends support the Federal Reserve chief's statement that the recession has "very likely" ended.

By Ron Scherer | Staff writer/ September 16, 2009 edition Print this Buzz up!Email and shareRepublish Get e-mail alerts RSS New York

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke pronounced that the recession “is very likely over.”

What’s the proof?

While there are still plenty who are skeptical that the downturn has ended, here are five positive trends that support a more optimistic view:

1. The stock market is acting more like a bull than a bear. The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index is now up 58 percent from its March 9 low. “Over the last sixty years, the market has bottomed a median of 5 months before the recession ended,” says Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor’s in New York. “That would mean the recession came to an end at the end of August.”

2. New claims for unemployment peaked on March 28 when they hit 674,000. Now, they are down to 550,000. “Typically, after claims have peaked, the recovery is coming in four to eight weeks,” says economist Bob Brusca of Fact and Opinion Economics in New York.

New unemployment claims reflect people who are getting laid off. “As the economy gets stronger, you expect fewer people [to be] getting displaced and the claims levels to drop – which they have done with regularity through the years,” says Mr. Brusca. “It’s a very good statistical indicator of when the recession is at its worst and when it’s going to end.”

3. Many manufacturing sectors are finally turning up. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve reported that industrial production rose 0.8 percent in August, the second consecutive monthly increase.

Automobile production has been particularly strong, rising 43 percent in July and 12 percent in August. Much of the increase was related to the so-called “Cash for Clunkers” program. The steel industry, which sells a lot of product to the auto industry, has seen production rise sharply from May to August.

“There has been a big inventory swing,” says Dan Meckstroth, chief economist at the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI in Arlington, Va. “Usually, manufacturing doesn’t lead the business cycle but it was driven down so brutally, we’re getting a rebound effect,” he says.

4. Gasoline deliveries have risen for the past three months, after declining for over a year and a half. Although increased gasoline usage may be the result of low prices (compared with a year ago), it may also signal that more people are commuting or shopping. “It could be a sign we are moving out of the recession,” says John Felmy, an economist with the American Petroleum Institute (API) in Washington.

However, Mr. Felmy notes that goods often get shipped before they get sold. Besides, he says, demand for diesel has not picked up yet.

“I’m not ready to call an end to the recession until diesel demand is up,” he says.

5. Demand for freight transportation is rising, according to the Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) put together by the US Department of Transportation.

The index, which measures the output of trucks, railroads, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight, rose 1.6 percent in July. This is the first increase since February and the largest since January 2008.

Over the past 25 years, an upturn in this index has been “coincident” with upturns in the economy, says Ken Notis, an economist at the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. “I would be wary about drawing too large a conclusion from one month,” says Mr. Notis, but he adds, “we also had a prior month of stability.”

His conclusion: improvement in the TSI is consistent with the stabilization of growth and the bottoming of Gross Domestic Product.

— Click here to read about more about what Ben Bernanke said.

RA wrote:  Tippy, the economy has not recovered yet.

DYK writes:  There's no one that has said so, but what has been said--there are "signs" of recovery, tepid, but happening.  And that's all that should be expected.  In fact, just after 8 months, it's a miracle that there's even that much of a positive hint.  The stimulus was not designed to work overnight.  And there's still 400 billion that hasn't been used yet.  Far, far too soon for anything of import to be surfacing.  However, there are signs:

Stock market up over 9700 from the low 6000 just 8 months ago

Housing has improved for over 5 months

The whole world is staggering back

Banks are lending again....notice Chase is advertising again, Capitol, too....

RA wrote:    We still have almost one out of every ten people unemployed

DYK writes:  jobs are always the last thing to recover.  The economy has not begun to reach a point where jobs are going to be created in a steady fashion.  Read any economist.  It's all like a domino effect both ways, a collapse and a recovery.  There is a progression of steps that fall into place.  This happens, then this happens, then that happens, etc.

RA wrote:    homes are still being forclosed on

DYK writes:  Yes, part of the domino effect still left.  On the other side, though, is the housing market steady improvement, month by month.  And the 8000.00 rebate given to new buyers is beginning to show success.  For many this is a whole down payment, which means that the new owners can move into a home of their own without upping their general housing costs or payments.

RA wrote:   and the auto industry is giving cars away but not selling them as they closed a large number of dealerships. The only American auto manufacturer that did not take bailout money from Obama is the only car copmany that did not file bankruptcy and is in the red as they do not own the Federal Government money. You are truly confused.

DYK writes:  It's called streamlining in order to be productive and to stay in business.  Because of the government's intervention, GM was able to restruture.  It doesn't flip overnight.

The cash for clunkers helped mightily, giving a boost when it was most needed.  Unfortunately, it was a victim of its own success.  Projected to last four months, it ran out of funds in four weeks.  But about 450,000 new cars went out the doors....

Time will tell.  The time, though, to cry Chicken Little is not at this precise time.  The depression didn't happen overnight or in 8 months.  A recovery will not happen overnight or in just 8 months.  A more realistic time frame might be a year and a half, maybe two years.  We'll see.

I think this answer is not helpful

Palin

Over the cliff under the ground

Wasn't Obama that requested the first Stimulus prior to getting into office? Unemployment is where and he said it would not go over what? Tippy, you have a short memory. The amount of money we are printing right now, we can not sustain. How much was spent on the wars and how much was spent by Obummer. This is Obummers tab and the economy has not turned around. Go ahead and blame Bush on something that the democrats forgot to tell you. All this housing problem was cause by whom? Acorn, Franks, look it up and repost your answer. See if you can do that. have a good day. Live free or Die

AP wrote: Wasn't Obama that requested the first Stimulus prior to getting into office?.............DYK writes: No. Of course, he was in agreement with Bush, as was everybody else. Paulson was the person "in charge" of pushing the bailouts ASAP. Investigate, and you'll find a story where Paulson got down on his knees, begging Pelosi to go along with the bailout.. Check the TRUE story out.

Mommasgirl wrote:   The economy is nearing a train wreck. 

DidYouKnow writes:  It was saved from a collosal shipwreck that would rest at the bottom of the deep blue sea.  As Tip said, it didn't go over the cliff, as surely it would have, had not direct action taken place.  Stock market hit over 10,000 this week, from a devasting 6300 or so just eight months ago.  This rise is one of the most impressive climbs in history.

Mommasgirl wrote:   Unemployment is rising,

DidYouKnow writes:  No, actually, the unemployment figures have steadied, although still rising, but at a disernible slower rate.  The predition is about 10.5 by next spring, then the decline is expected to begin.   What a lot of people don't know is that employment is always the caboose of a recession or depression.  It is the last thing to improve, since the investors tend to hold back until they can be sure what direction is what.  Although hard for the unemployed, this is normal cycle.

Mommasgirl wrote:.... gasoline went up again today,

DidYouKnow writes:  And if it did, it has nothing to do with Obama, as Bush had nothing to do with the 4.44 gas prices of last year.  While the average joe believes a president is in charge of any and everything that goes on in an economy, he isn't. 

Mommasgirl wrote:  cost of living is over the rail and all that man in the President's seat is worried about is, His Health Care Plan. 

DidYouKNow writes:  Which is just another neocon kind of mind, shooting from its lip.  Of course, Obama is involved, his plate full, multi-tasking into the wee small hours of the morning, 24/7.

Mommasgirl wrote:   The present condition of our country, and his health care plan will put America into a bankrupt status. 

DidYouKnow writes:  Just the opposite.  The health care reform is critical, since its costs have been, and will continure to be, out of control.  OR, more to the point, in the control of a monopolized insurance industry.  The insurance industry are major contributors to the "condition of the country."  Obama's trying to fix, repair, and build.

Mommasgirl wrote:   I also heard today that his ratings are down to 49%.

DidYouKnow writes:  Where was this heard?  And what does it mean?  And what did it concern?  His policy on health care?  His overall policies?  His personal likeability?  There will be different percentages for each category.

Mommasgirl wrote:  He has done nothing for our country since being in office, and with him in there, we are all going to have to grow a tin bill and peck gravel with the chickens. 

DidYouKNow writes:  That's what all the Chicken Littles should be doing.

Mommasgirl wrote:   He don't care about the American people and Tippy you are included in that. 

DidYouKnow writes:   What a ridiculous statement!  All of this heavy analysis after a person's been on the job for about eight months.  ON the job that had the most difficult problems to solve in history.  Obtuse, jaded and ignorant to rant so negatively without support, foundation, facts, or examples and sources.

Mommasgirl wrote:   If you think his change is working, ask those of us who are unemployed due to his spending habits.

DidYouKnow writes:  I wonder if MG is capable of supporting this assertion, that Obama is responsible for her unemployment status?  I bet she can't do it.  And I bet she, if she's truly unemployed, benefitted from the extension of unemployment benefits.  And the benefits may get extended again.....

Mommasgirl wrote, but did not cite the source:   I also heard today that his ratings are down to 49%.

----------------------------------------

But there's this:  

Oct 16, 2009:      It was not quite the tempest triggered by John Lennon claiming in 1966 that the Beatles were more popular than Jesus. But the Gallup Poll got the winds racing through the world's TV studios Thursday with a new survey headlined, "Hillary Clinton Now More Popular Than Barack Obama." According to the Gallup numbers, 62 percent of the voters view Clinton favorably while Obama's thumbs-up rating is down to 56 percent.