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Can Hillary win?

Can Hillary Clinton still win the Democratic nomination for President?  Or is Barack Obama's momentum too strong?

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The race is still neck in neck and to hard to tell yet. Mr Obama estimates that his widemargin victories in Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington states on Saturday raise his tally to 1,012 elected delegates against Mrs Clinton's 940, in a race where the winner will need 2,025 to secure the nomination.

But the calculations are complicated by the fact that almost a fifth of those in play are unelected "super-delegates" who can change allegiance at any time and whose numbers are likely to far exceed the winning margin of either candidate. Mrs Clinton is estimated to have secured pledges from 212 super-delegates - roughly double Mr Obama's number.

Many Democrats fear that the battle over superdelegates, whose numbers include Democratic lawmakers in Washington and senior state officials, will decide the contest, which may stretch as far as a brokered convention in late August.

This would give Arizona Senator John McCain, who is the likely Republican nominee, a clear run of several months to establish his credentials among the broader electorate. It could also produce a messy situation in which the candidate with more super-delegates could secure the nomination in spite of losing the vote.

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Posted 7 months ago ( permalink )
In reply to darling's question
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Of course she can win. She's still in the lead and even though Obama has been gaining momentum I certainly wouldn't write her off just yet. Many things can change in such a race and the candidate with the momentum on one day is the one behind the next.

I think it'll be a really close race all the way to the finish line. 


Posted 7 months ago ( permalink )
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Ronen22 was invited by Yedda to answer this question.

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I don't only think she can win, I think she will win. Her latest loses were no more than a minor setback in her race to the White House. I truly believe that when the dust clears she will be triumphant.


Posted 7 months ago ( permalink )
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The answer from "tiptopmanager" covers most of the important facts, and even much of the potential controversy.  The political pundits I hear talking seem to think that nothing is beyond the realm of possibility when it comes to the shrewdness and maneuvering ability of "the Clinton machine" (which is to say that they have now, as they have in the past, some of the best minds and strategists available and working on) trying to ensure that Mrs. Clinton, Senator Hillary Clinton, becomes Mrs. President Clinton. 

In particular, they are managing the expectations of the public and to a large extent, those in the media who are giving the campaign the most coverage.  Chris Matthews of MSNBC seems to be clearly more a fan of Senator Obama, even though his long political career (before becoming a broadcaster & after) (his brother has been a candidate in prior elections too) has also made him a genuine fan of many of the trusted advisors to the Clinton campaign. He doesn't pretend to be an entirely unbiased journalist, and when he and Keith Olbermann co-host primary election results coverage on their network, it is almost like watching the "anti-Limbaugh" show.   Rachel Maddow, of Air America, an avowed liberal media outlet, apprears frequently with both of those two now, and she is also very intelligent from what I can see.

They all seem to think Senato Obama has a serious chance to take it away from Senator Clinton because she requires some 54% of the remaining available delegates (from primaries and caucuses, excluding Superdelegate counts) to achieve a clear majority (or publicly chosen delegates) before the convention in August in Denver.  It has been a tough fought race thus far, and can be expected to continue to be so.  However, the careful strategy of the Clinton campaign appears to me to be one that is designed to obtain the maximum attention for the campaign and for the candidates (yes, candidates, plural), because I mean the Democratic Campaign, not just the Clinton candidacy campaign.

Futhermore, I see it as a conscious effort to avoid the appearance that Senator Clinton was fore-ordained by the party insiders.  Her campaign is trying to duplicate the "comeback kid" image of Bill Clinton in his successful bid for the presidency.  She can't be the "come-back kid" if she never steps out of the leading position, so she is now (according to NBC's calculations,) about 100 delegates behind Senator Obama (after counting the SuperDelegates and their assumed/presumed loyalties).   She just has to squeak out a 1 vote (in the popular vote) victory and she will have no trouble obtaining the SuperDelegates to outweigh the Obama campaign in the end.

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Stafford "Doc" Williamson 

 


Posted 7 months ago ( permalink )
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She can, but i doubt that she will.

I think Obama will be the Democrat, and the the Republicans will stay in office.

This country is not ready for a president who is not a male WASP yet. 


Posted 6 months ago ( permalink )
In reply to darling's question
Karenp was invited by Yedda to answer this question.