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American Economy Recovery

How long will it take for the American economy to get out of its current situation? Do you think the dollar will become stronger during 2008?

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Love is the battery of life....

Hi,


I don't want to be the bad new mwssnager but I deeply believe that the American economy is heading to a long recession.  It will start between 2009 and 2011 and will last for about 2 years.  It sounds nonsense now and some readeres probably laugh at me but please print this answer and let's duscuss it at 2012..... My answer is not a wild guess but a result of several analysis I did (I am very seriious: with PhD, M.Sc, MBA, B.Sc....). 
Sorry to be the bad news messanger..... don't kill me.......

Posted 8 months ago ( permalink )
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Relatively, no.  The improvement would be so small as to be insignificant.

Too much federal debt, too many defaults on personal debt, and too much write offs.  

It will not be this year.  Nor the next for the dollar to have the same level of confidence.

The American Economy will either experience mild inflation or a form of stagflation.  That is about it.  I doubt it will be a recession/depression.  Here's why:  even with the defaults occuring by banks and consumers, and american growth slowing, the market is not being allowed to correct itself.  With the federal government assisting in bailouts, it perpetuates and artificially inflates the housing market and the dollar.  This makes any monetary policy done by the Fed Bank doing more marginal harm when they wish to act.  So no growth, and the dollar actually falters.  So inflation and no growth = stagflation.

Don't get me wrong:  everything American that is bound to recover looks like a deal to a foreign investor, or those with some money to do some stock or consumer purchasing.  A lot of foreign soveriegn wealth funds (including oil) are snapping financial firms up.

So perhaps 3 to 4 years things will be better. 

Best of luck 

 

 

 


Posted 8 months ago ( permalink )
JtotheA was invited by Yedda to answer this question.

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Thanks for the great answer.


Posted 8 months ago ( permalink )
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