Upon what are we to assess the likely winner? Polls? Personal preference?

I think the last two elections show that it could well be whomever the power elite wish to place in the presidency. Are you still of the opinion that your vote matters? Maybe it does as long as you aren't black, or elderly, or a Floridian.

Who can we trust? Hilary and Obama and Ron Paul may be saying things we want to hear but they weren't saying it back when it mattered. 

I'm sorry I don't mean to be a doomsayer. If you are still optimistic about the future then more power to you. I just hope it's an optimism born of knowledge and not ignorance.